2010 Spec Script Sales Analysis: Genres
By my count, Hwood studios and prod cos acquired 55 spec scripts in 2010. During this week, I’ll be breaking down those numbers.
Today we look at sales by genre. Some scripts are categorized as cross genres or sub-genres, so those are noted where relevant.
Note: Genre designations are not scientific, so you have to understand these numbers are general.
2010 SPEC SCRIPT SALES BY GENRE
COMEDY 16
Comedy 11
Comedy Romantic 4
Comedy Horror 1
ACTION 14
Action 6
Action Thriller 4
Action Comedy 2
Action Adventure 1
Action Fairy Tale 1
THRILLER 10
Thriller 8
Thriller Supernatural 1
Thriller Suspense 1
SCIENCE FICTION 7
Science Fiction 4
Science Fiction Action 2
Science Fiction Thriller 1
DRAMA 4
FAMILY 2
Family Adventure 2
FANTASY 1
MYSTERY 1
First let’s compare to 2008 and 2009:
2008 (88 sales)
COMEDY 41
ACTION 13
DRAMA 12
THRILLER 10
FANTASY 3
SCIENCE FICTION 3
ADVENTURE 2
DISASTER 2
FAMILY 1
HORROR 1
2009 (68 sales)
COMEDY 26
THRILLER 12
ACTION 11
DRAMA 7
SCIENCE FICTION 4
ROMANTIC COMEDY 3
FAMILY 1
FANTASY 1
HEIST 1
HORROR 1
MURDER MYSTERY 1
2010 (55 sales)
COMEDY 16
ACTION 14
THRILLER 10
SCIENCE FICTION 7
DRAMA 4
FAMILY 2
FANTASY 1
MYSTERY 1
* The first thing to note is the downward trend in spec script sales. From 2008 to 2010, that is a 37% drop. The WGA strike in 2007–2008 probably skewed the sales number higher to make up for lost time. And we’ve discussed previously how the studios have cut their development slates and money for acquisitions as part of their current policy of financial austerity, so that would account for some of the decline. Will that state of affairs continue? Hard to say. Going through my files of sales from the last 20+ years, the high and low numbers for sales range from 120 to 50, so the 2010 figure is not without precedent. Furthermore as the studios keep testing to determine the fewest number of movies they can produce and distribute while generating the best ROI, one would think they’d start hitting the bottom soon. Perhaps they already have witness the January box office results which were horrible in part due to the fact the studios only released 9 movies (compared to 14 in 2009).
* Perhaps a more noteworthy number is the decline in the sale of comedies: 41 (2008), 26 (2009), 16 (2010). That is a 61% decline in 2 years. The fact comedy was almost dethroned last year is pretty shocking because according to my records, comedy has been the #1 genre for spec script sales for well over a decade. Here’s my theory on that: Big action type movies like Prince of Persia: Sands of Time and The Tourist which did poorly in domestic B.O. have made lots of money internationally — as noted here. This is compared to comedies which typically don’t do as well overseas. So my guess is Hollywood with its never-ending pursuit of minimizing risk has decided to focus on highly-visual spectacle movies and make less comedies, essentially producing movies more than ever with an eye toward the international market.
* Besides it’s not like the studios are moving aggressively into the action and thriller markets. Those numbers have pretty much stayed the same for three years running: Action 13 / 11 / 14 — Thriller 10 / 12 /10. So again it’s more of a case of Hollywood not spending as much on comedy specs than spending more on action and thriller scripts.
* That said the big four genres — Comedy, Action, Thriller, Drama — comprised 44 of the 55 spec scripts sold in 2010, representing 80% of all scripts sold (compared to 82% in 2009).
* Interesting to see Science Fiction has an upward trend line: 3 (2008), 4 (2009), 7 (2010). That may be yet another example of Hollywood focusing on spectacle movies for burgeoning international markets.
To me, the two most interesting numbers to track in 2011 will be the overall spec script sales — will it go down again or reverse the trend. And comedy spec script sales. If those numbers continue to be depressed, my theory may be right. And as anecdotal evidence, it’s interesting to note that of the four spec scripts to have sold thus far in 2011, none is a comedy (three thrillers and one horror).
How about you? How do you interpret the numbers?
And for the hell of it, let’s predict how many spec scripts will sell in 2011.
I’m going to say 64. What’s your guess?
Tomorrow: Studios.
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