2013 Spec Script Sales Analysis: Genres
By my count, Hwood studios and production groups acquired 100 spec scripts in 2013. During this week, I’ll be breaking down those numbers.
Today we look at sales by genre. Some scripts are categorized as cross genres or sub-genres, so those are noted where relevant under their primary genre category.
Note: Genre designations are not scientific, so you have to understand these numbers are general.
2013 SPEC SCRIPT SALES BY GENRE
THRILLER 25
Contained Thriller 2
Crime Thriller 2
Legal Thriller 1
Political Thriller 1
Supernatural Thriller 1
ACTION 20
Action Thriller 11
Action Adventure 3
Action Drama 1
COMEDY 18
Action Comedy 7
Romantic Comedy 1
DRAMA 17
Biopic 2
Crime Drama 2
Drama Comedy 2
Cop Drama 1
Spy Drama Thriller 1
Drama Adventure 1
Drama Romance 1
War Drama 1
SCIENCE FICTION 13
Science Fiction Thriller 5
Science Fiction Drama 1
HORROR 3
Horror Supernatural 2
WESTERN 2
DISASTER 1
FAMILY 1
First let’s compare to 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012.
2008 (88 sales)
COMEDY 41
ACTION 13
DRAMA 12
THRILLER 10
FANTASY 3
SCIENCE FICTION 3
ADVENTURE 2
DISASTER 2
FAMILY 1
HORROR 1
2009 (68 sales)
COMEDY 26
THRILLER 12
ACTION 11
DRAMA 7
SCIENCE FICTION 4
ROMANTIC COMEDY 3
FAMILY 1
FANTASY 1
HEIST 1
HORROR 1
MURDER MYSTERY 1
2010 (55 sales)
COMEDY 16
ACTION 14
THRILLER 10
SCIENCE FICTION 7
DRAMA 4
FAMILY 2
FANTASY 1
MYSTERY 1
2011 (110 sales)
ACTION 29
THRILLER 20
COMEDY 19
DRAMA 14
SCIENCE FICTION 13
HORROR 8
FAMILY 2
FAIRY TALE 1
HEIST 1
SUPERNATURAL 1
WESTERN 1
2012 (99 sales)
ACTION 27
THRILLER 20
COMEDY 20
SCIENCE FICTION 12
DRAMA 10
HORROR 9
SUPERNATURAL 1
2013 (100 sales)
THRILLER 25
ACTION 20
COMEDY 18
DRAMA 17
SCIENCE FICTION 13
HORROR 3
WESTERN 2
DISASTER 1
FAMILY 1
* The first thing that strikes me is how consistent the total number of deals has been the last three years: 110 / 99 / 100. This suggests a strong spec script market in comparison to 2008–2010: 88 / 68 / 55. Put another way:
2008–2010: 211 (average per year: 70)
2011–2013: 309 (average per year: 103)
Certainly these current numbers are not near historic peaks such as 1995 with 173 deals and 1996 with 155. And a significant number of acquisitions during the last few years have been with financiers as compared to the major studios and, therefore, for less money. Still compared to as recently as four years ago when some people were talking about the “death” of the spec script market, these numbers suggest otherwise. That’s good news for aspiring and professional screenwriters.
* Note the continuing upward trend of both Thriller and Science Fiction (2008–2013):
Thriller: 10 / 12 / 10 / 20 / 20 / 25
Science Fiction: 3 / 4 / 7 / 13 / 12 / 13
My take is Thrillers can be done for a price and because they lend themselves to visual storytelling, which makes them appealing to international moviegoers, that combined with the fact many of them have been successful the last few years (Now You See Me, Prisoners, Argo, Safe House) suggests buyers are still attracted to this genre. Indeed in 2013, Thriller took over the #1 spot from Action. And if you add Action Thrillers to the mix, that is 36 spec script sales, a nifty 36% of all deals.
Conventional wisdom is that science fiction spec scripts are a hard sell because many studio folks think this is the most challenging genre that exists and, therefore, they tend to rely on writers that have a track record in the genre such as Alex Kurtzman & Roberto Orci, Damon Lindelof, and Jon Spaihts. But look at those numbers, a definite trend upward. My guess is with the overall success of big science fiction / superhero franchises, there is some bleed-over into the spec market. Plus if we dug down into the details of the sci fi spec deals, I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least some of them are more ‘contained’ projects, at least from a budget standpoint — a big concept wrapped in a smaller narrative package.
* Action took a hit in the spec market and I suspect the fact so many of them tanked early on in 2013 (The Last Stand, Parker, Bullet to the Head), that left a bad taste in buyers’ mouths. My sense is that there is some concern that the genre may have become oversaturated with product combined with the fact that some of the standby actors in the genre (Willis, Stallone, Schwarzenegger) are getting too old to generate interest in moviegoers. And where are the new action stars?
* After a precipitous drop in 2008 and 2009, Comedy seems to have stabilized in the spec market. One number in particular pleases me: Action Comedy with 7 sales, 39% of all deals within the genre. Why does this make me happy? First, I like this cross genre. Second, three years ago on this blog, I predicted it would make a comeback. Sometimes I get it right!
* But the number which gives me the most joy is Drama with 17 deals. That is the highest total in the 6 years I’ve been tracking spec sales at Go Into The Story. To me, this says one thing: The buyers have finally recognized they have a reliable audience with adults. Most Drama acquisitions are from fiction books, nonfiction books and real life stories, so the fact there has been this much activity in the spec market suggests this is an actual trend: The studios have made a conscious business decision to go after Seniors, Baby Boomers and the 40+ crowd.
What do you think when you look at these numbers? Will they have any impact on what stories you choose to write in 2014?
Head over to comments to post your observations and analysis of the year in spec script sales.
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