2013 Summer B.O. Predictions!
Today officially kicks off the summer movie season. Yes, it’s only May 3rd, I know, but Hollywood approaches ‘summer’ like retailers think of ‘Christmas’ which selling season now begins around Halloween. One can quibble about the date, but the reality is with Iron Man 3 being released last night domestically on 4,253 screens and having already grossed $345M internationally, while it still may be snowing in Kansas, if you set your watch by Hollywood Standard Time, we are in summer, y’all.
What better way to celebrate the new season by guessing which of the big summer movies will do what box office domestically? Sure, it doesn’t mean anything, but if there are freaking Fantasy Fishing Leagues, why the hell not try to predict box office!
Here is the release slate of big Hollywood movies this summer by week:
May 3-May 9: Iron Man 3
May 10-May 16: The Great Gatsby, Tyler Perry Presents Peeples
May 17-May 23: Star Trek Into Darkness
May 24-May 30: Epic, Fast & Furious 6, The Hangover Part III
May 31-June 6: After Earth, Now You See Me
June 7-June 13: The Internship, The Purge
June 14-June 20: Man of Steel, This is the End
June 21-June 27: Monsters University, World War Z
June 28-July 2: The Heat, White House Down
July 3-July 11: Despicable Me 2, The Lone Ranger
July 12-July 18: Grown Ups 2, Pacific Rim
July 19-July 25: The Conjuring, R.I.P.D., Red 2, Turbo
July 26-August 1: The Wolverine
August 2-August 8: 2 Guns, 300: Rise of an Empire, The Smurfs 2
August 9-August 15: Elysium, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, Planes, We’re the Millers
August 16-August 22: Kick-Ass 2, Paranoia, The To-Do List
August 23-August 29: Grandmasters, The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, The World’s End, You’re Next
August 30-September 5: Closed Circuit, Getaway, One Direction: This Is Us, Satanic
Some dude at Deadline predicts at 8 tentpole movies could bomb this summer and that domestic B.O. will be $3.65B, essentially flat compared to last year. But my Ouija board say there will be a slight uptick in box office over the next 4 months.
So what are your predictions? If you really want to impress us, you’ll not only list the movies in order of B.O. performance, but take a guess at the total figure each movie will generate.
And by the way, for those of us who like to balance out our diet of movies that are heavy on blowing shit up with more thoughtful fare, don’t forget independent cinema this summer. Titles like: Frances Ha (May 17), Stories We Tell (May 17), Before Midnight (May 24), The Kings of Summer (May 31), Much Ado About Nothing (June 7), The Bling Ring (June 14), Twenty Feet from Stardom (June 14), The Way, Way Back (July 5), Fruitvale Station (July 26), The Spectacular Now (August 2), Ain’t Them Bodies Saints (August 16), Drinking Buddies (August 23), and The Lifeguard.
Now off to comments with your predictions!
UPDATE: Amy Kaufman (LAT) reports this:
Of the 45 films being released from this weekend to Labor Day, at least 18 cost more than $100 million each to produce — and five of them were in the $200-million neighborhood. In summer 2012, just 12 of 40 pictures had budgets of $100 million or more.
You have to figure at least part of the equation for those $100M+ budgets is confidence they can make a profit in the international market, even if the movie doesn’t fare so well domestically.
For more of the article, go here.
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