2018 Spec Script Deals Analysis: Genres

Scott Myers
Go Into The Story
Published in
4 min readFeb 5, 2019

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By my count, Hollywood studios, production companies, and financiers acquired 40 spec scripts in 2018. During this week, I’ll be breaking down those numbers.

Screenwriter Joan Harrison

Today we look at deals by genre. Some scripts are categorized as cross genres or sub-genres, so those are noted where relevant under their primary genre category.

Note: Genre designations are not scientific, so you have to understand these numbers are general.

2018 SPEC SCRIPT DEALS BY GENRE

Science Fiction — 10
Thriller — 6
Action — 2
Drama — 2

Comedy — 9
Romantic — 3
Thriller — 1

Drama — 9
Historical — 3
Action — 1
Adventure — 1
Biopic — 1
Crime — 1
Romance — 1
Sports — 1
War — 1

Horror — 4
Thriller — 2

Thriller — 4
Spy — 1
Supernatural — 1

Action — 3
Drama — 1
Fantasy — 1

Family — 1
Fantasy — 1

First, let’s compare to 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017.

2008 (88 deals)

COMEDY 41
ACTION 13
DRAMA 12
THRILLER 10
FANTASY 3
SCIENCE FICTION 3
ADVENTURE 2
DISASTER 2
FAMILY 1
HORROR 1

2009 (68 deals)

COMEDY 26
THRILLER 12
ACTION 11
DRAMA 7
SCIENCE FICTION 4
ROMANTIC COMEDY 3
FAMILY 1
FANTASY 1
HEIST 1
HORROR 1
MURDER MYSTERY 1

2010 (55 deals)

COMEDY 16
ACTION 14
THRILLER 10
SCIENCE FICTION 7
DRAMA 4
FAMILY 2
FANTASY 1
MYSTERY 1

2011 (110 deals)

ACTION 29
THRILLER 20
COMEDY 19
DRAMA 14
SCIENCE FICTION 13
HORROR 8
FAMILY 2
FAIRY TALE 1
HEIST 1
SUPERNATURAL 1
WESTERN 1

2012 (99 deals)

ACTION 27
THRILLER 20
COMEDY 20
SCIENCE FICTION 12
DRAMA 10
HORROR 9
SUPERNATURAL 1

2013 (100 deals)

THRILLER 25
ACTION 20
COMEDY 18
DRAMA 17
SCIENCE FICTION 13
HORROR 3
WESTERN 2
DISASTER 1
FAMILY 1

2014 (62 deals)

ACTION 17
COMEDY 12
DRAMA 10
SCIENCE FICTION 9
THRILLER 8
HORROR 5
FANTASY 2

2015 (55 deals)

DRAMA 17
ACTION 13
THRILLER 10
COMEDY 7
SCIENCE FICTION 7
FAMILY 1

2016 (75 deals)

DRAMA 24
COMEDY 18
THRILLER 13
ACTION 10
SCIENCE FICTION 8
WESTERN 2

2017 (61 deals)

DRAMA 16
SCIENCE FICTION 12
THRILLER 11
ACTION 10
COMEDY 7
HORROR 5

  • The first thing to note is the decline in announced spec script deals: 61 to 40, a decline of 34%. In fact, this is the lowest number of reported spec script deals since 1992. The two primary contributing factors: (1) The major studios have an established pattern of producing the minimum amount of movies for the maximum amount of revenues. This is a plan they initiated during and after the 2007–2008 WGA work stoppage and after a decade, they’ve pretty much figured out those numbers. Fewer produced projects results in fewer spec script acquisitions. (2) Moreover, the studios — and to a somewhat lesser degree production companies and financiers — are obsessed with preexisting content. Sequels, prequels, reboots, remakes, anything which already exists which they can re-purpose… that’s what in their business model wheelhouse. It’s a challenge to set up original stories in this environment, let alone get it produced. Potential buyers have much more of a comfort level with pre-branded content as they believe it’s a safer bet in large part due to market awareness of the titles / subject matter in question.
  • Science Fiction, which was the 2nd most popular genre in 2017, moved into the top slot in 2018. With 10 deals, that represents 25% of all spec script deals last year. For the first time in 4 years, Drama dropped from the top spot, tied for second with Comedy, each with 9 deals.
  • When we total up all of the cross genre and sub-genre elements, the totals show a somewhat different picture:

THRILLER 13
DRAMA 12
SCIENCE FICTION 10
ACTION 6
HORROR 4
FANTASY 2
FAMILY 1

Thriller is a popular cross-genre element: Science Fiction (6), Horror (2), Comedy (1).

The Big Question: Where does the spec script market go in 2019 and beyond? If you look at the numbers stretching back to 1992, it’s clear the market is cyclical in nature, so it’s reasonable to assume we have hit rock bottom in terms of the number of deals per year. Moreover with the box office success of such spec script movies as A Quiet Place, Blockers, and BlacKkKlansman, hopefully buyers will realize that original stories with strong story concepts can still succeed in their theatrical runs. Then there is the presence of streaming services, most notably Netflix which is said to plan on producing 90 original movies this year. If they jump into the spec market, that can significantly change buying and selling dynamics.

Then there’s this: The original TV pilot script market is flooded with material. While series will continue to be green lit and produced at record numbers, there’s just too much content in competition for writers to expect much in the way of return on their effort writing TV specs. I expect to see writers returning to spec features and hopefully with some strong, marketable stories.

On the whole, while I’m not bullish on the spec market in 2019, I do think it will rebound. Pulling a number out of thin air, I’ll project 58 spec script deals this year. Let’s see how that pans out on December 31, 2019!

What do you think when you look at these numbers? Will they have any impact on what stories you choose to write in 2019?

Click on RESPONSE to post your observations and analysis of the year in spec script deals.

2018 Spec Script Deal List

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