Facing the Odds

How to handle the simple fact: It’s REALLY hard to sell a spec script.

[Originally published November 10, 2013]

Some time ago, a GITS reader [who wanted to remain anonymous] forwarded me this information:

As you are known for tracking sales, I thought I’d throw in some stats I got from someone at the WGA yesterday (stats are circa 2007):

* About 250 films are made by the studios’ major divisions; another 100 are made by independents, some of whom are owned by the studios. (Another 50 or so foreign features are released each year).

* The WGAW Registry processes approximately 65,000 transactions per year. Of these registry transactions, about half are film, the other half are TV, and some are repeat registrations of further-developed drafts.

I do have an article from the blog Fencing with the Fog, Screenplay Sales statistics which puts the odds of a spec sale at one in 1,100.

Also, this CNN Entertainment article “Screenwriters Chasing the Brass Ring in the Land of Dreams” puts the odds at a spec script being purchased and then produced at 1 in 5375 (1998) if I am extrapolating correctly: (it says that the California lottery is more likely to produce a millionaire!)

To this we can add a post by the Unknown Screenwriter who also figures the odds against selling a spec to be about 5,000 to 1.

No matter the number, the simple fact is the odds are against you. Get used to it. Even when you break into The Biz by selling a spec, you will face odds against you at every turn of your screenwriting career: Odds against selling that pitch, odds against landing that OWA (Open Writing Assignment), odds against your project getting a green light, odds against the movie turning out well, odds against the movie being a hit, and on and on.

Writers come in all psychological shapes and sizes, but there are some areas we all have to deal with universally and facing the odds is one of them.

You have to develop an iron stomach and steel spine: The former to fend off nerves whenever you take a risk, the latter to keep you unbowed when confronting passes.

You have to find that balance point between rationality and irrationality: The former to help you assess what to write and where to put your energy, the latter to buck you up to leap again and again into the breach.

You have to keep your head in the clouds and your feet on the ground: The former to feed your creativity and fuel your hope, the latter to remind of reality and the daily challenge you face in overcoming the odds.

You have to be able to celebrate your victories and survive your defeats.

But here’s the crazy thing: In a business where the most apt description of how it works is screenwriter William Goldman’s assertion that “nobody knows anything,” this bit of wisdom turns things on their head. For the fact is screenwriters are not dealing with widgets, we are trafficking in magic. Stories are part-creativity, part-persistence, and all-ineffable bafflement at what works and what doesn’t, why this sells and that doesn’t. Those intangibles twist about the whole ‘numbers against’ dynamic.

Add to this unholy mix of psychological dynamics and unruly statistics another set of numbers: 2.

That is the number of writers or writing teams who sold a spec script on average per week in 2011 and 2012.

Actually to be precise, it’s 2.01 [209 spec script sales divided by 104 weeks in 2011 and 2012].

Which means that basically every week, some lucky bastards are going to face the odds… and beat them. Their confounding combination of story concept, character development, months of slamming one’s fingers against a keyboard and one’s forehead against a computer monitor, seemingly endless rewrites, and countless hours of fending off the voices of negativity will result in a script that sells.

No matter how depressed you may become at facing the odds, twice a week your faith can be restored, if you allow yourself, by the simple fact of reading about how Studio A bought Script B from Screenwriter C who then mainlined Champagne D.

If you need more tangible proof this is possible, you need look no further than yours truly: I was a complete Hollywood outsider who wrote and sold an original screenplay to Universal for $750K, it was produced, then spawned two sequels.

So yes, the odds are against you. Really against you. Way the hell against you.

But there is only one way to succeed as a screenwriter: By acknowledging those long odds… telling them to screw off… then writing the best damn script you can.

Comment Archive

UPDATE: The spec market continued to take a nosedive in 2015 dropping from 100 in 2013 to 62 in 2014 to 55 last year. Interestingly that is the same number of deals as reported in 2010 before there was a three year run which averaged over 100 spec script deals per year.

In 2016, there have already been 67 spec script deals with a good chance the year will end up topping 7o.

Is this a sign of a rebound in the spec market? Hopefully so. However remember this: The value of a spec script lies not only in a purchase or option. A well-written spec script can land a writer representation, secure meetings with producers and studio executives, and serve as evidence the writer can handle an open writing assignment.

So as noted in the OP, write. Keep writing. Finish your scripts. Against the odds. All it takes is one set of eyeballs to change your life.