When Hollywood Loses Control: How Foreign Box Office Owns the Movie Business

Screenwriters and filmmakers, are you paying attention?

From an Indiewire article yesterday:

While tentpole movies are essential to Hollywood, Hollywood no longer controls the tentpoles. The real power lies in the foreign box office for those blockbusters, with China as the retaining wall.

Last weekend, “Transformers: The Last Knight” earned $70 million in its first five days in North America. It’s a very weak showing compared to the last installment, which earned about $100 million in three days. Stories are similar for “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales” and “The Mummy,” among others, all with the same rationalization: Foreign is strong, and will/could make up for domestic shortfalls.

Technically, that’s true. “Transformers: The Last Knight” — like half of the 20 biggest releases so far this year — will likely do 80 percent or more of its business overseas. Paying too much attention to that statistic, however, is to look the wrong way. As domestic returns plummet, so does Hollywood’s ability to create a healthy movie business.

Ten of the top major studio releases in 2017 have earned 20% or less of their box office revenues from the domestic market. Here’s a list:

Top 20 Movies of 2017 to Date, Worldwide

1 Beauty and the Beast: $1,257 million
 Domestic: $504 million (40.1%) Foreign: $753 (59.9%)

2 The Fate of the Furious: $1,238 million
 Domestic: $225.2 (18.2%) Foreign: $1,013 million (81.8%)

3 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $852 million
 Domestic: $380.6 (44.7%) Foreign: $471.2 (55.3%)

4 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales: $680 million
 Domestic: $160.9 (23.7%) Foreign: $519.1 (76.3%)

5 Wonder Woman: $657 million
 Domestic: $321.2 (48.9%) Foreign: $335.8 (51.1%)

6 Logan: $618 million
 Domestic: $226.3 (36.6%) Foreign: $391.8 (63.4%)

7 Kong: Skull Island: $566 million
 Domestic: $168.1 (29.7%) Foreign: $398.1 (70.3%)

8 The Boss Baby: $493 million
 Domestic: $173.1 (35.1%) Foreign: $320.3 (64.9%)

9 Fifty Shades Darker: $379 million
 Domestic: $114.4 (30.2%) Foreign: $264.4 (69.8%)

10 Your Name: $354 million
 Domestic: $4.9 (1.4%) Foreign: $349.5 (98.6%)

11 xXx: The Return of Xander Cage: $346 million
 Domestic: $44.9 (13.0%) Foreign: $301.2 (87.0%)

12 The Mummy: $345 million
 Domestic: $69.5 (20.2%) Foreign: $275.2 (79.8%)

13 The Great Wall: $332 million
Domestic: $45.2 (13.6%) Foreign: $286.8 (86.4%)

14 Resident Evil: The Final Chapter: $312 million
 Domestic: $26.8 (8.6%) Foreign: $285.4 (91.4%)

15 The LEGO Batman Movie: $311 million
 Domestic: $175.8 (56.5%) Foreign: $135.1 (43.5%)

16 Split: $276 million
 Domestic: $138.1 (49.9%) Foreign: $138.8 (50.1%)

17 Transformers: The Last Knight: $272 million
 Domestic: $73.2 (26.9%) Foreign: $199.2 (3.1%)

18 Kung Fu Yoga: $254 million
 Domestic: $363k (0.1%) Foreign: $253.8 (99.9%)

19 Get Out: $252 million
 Domestic: $175.5 (69.7%) Foreign: $76.3 30.3%)

20 Journey to the West: The Demons Strike Back: $247 million
 Domestic: $880k (0.4%) Foreign: $245.7 (99.6%)

Note: While “The Mummy,” “Pirates of the Caribbean” and “Transformers” currently reflect domestic shares above 20%, all are still in release with foreign territories yet to open, and are anticipated to go under 20% domestic.

Obviously the studios are extremely attentive in catering their franchise movies toward international audiences, but there is a trickle down effect into more modestly budgeted projects and even independent films. The impact can be felt in everything from casting (diverse actors from different continents) to plot choices (be careful who the antagonists are) to location (switch from the U.S. to a foreign country).

As a screenwriter or filmmaker, we would be wise to bear in mind the increasing influence the international marketplace has in the film industry.

By the way, it’s not by definition a bad thing. Movies can benefit from a wider diversity of characters and the actors who portray them, so there’s no reason why we, as writers, can’t get in on that emerging trend. There are hundreds, perhaps thousands of subcultures around the world which have yet to be tapped as narrative material for a movie, and that provides opportunities for storytellers to research and use them in our projects.

Granted it pretty much sucks that big budget franchise movies continue to get produced — even if they’re awful — because their bottom lines are buttressed by international revenues. However the world is a diverse place.

As writers, let’s get beyond the narrow confines of our experiential borders and explore different, global stories.

For the Indiewire article, go here.