Alternative theories for B.O. decline

Following up on this post — A Year of Disappointment at the Movie Box Office — here are two more articles to throw into the mix.

From the LAT, a discussion of the concept “multiple” and why many recent movies are not working in that regard:

In fact, average opening weekend ticket sales have stayed fairly constant over the last decade, when adjusted for inflation. Avid moviegoers excited to see a new picture as soon as possible (think “Twihards” or “Harry Potter” fanatics) still flock to theaters as eagerly as ever in the first few days of release.

It’s the more casual audiences, the type of people who read reviews and wait to hear what their friends say, that are becoming increasingly difficult to lure to the multiplex.

“The primary culprit for declining box office is that people who are unsure at first if they want to see a movie are now more likely to wait to see it on DVD or video on demand,” said Vincent Bruzzeze, motion picture group president for research firm Ipsos MediaCT. “There’s no reason to believe that the problem is movie quality or distraction from other activities like video games.”

Then film critic Roger Ebert notes several reasons for the decline, ending with this:

The message I get is that Americans love the movies as much as ever. It’s the theaters that are losing their charm. Proof: theaters thrive that police their audiences, show a variety of titles and emphasize value-added features. The rest of the industry can’t depend forever on blockbusters to bail it out.

Of course is Hollywood really concerned?

If Hollywood really has a problem at the domestic box office, the 2012 release slate shows little evidence that studios are making changes to address it. Weekends are still packed with big-budget tent poles, among them properties new to the big screen like Walt Disney Studios’ “John Carter” and 20th Century Fox’s “Prometheus,” and sequels such as Sony Pictures’ “Men in Black 3” and Warner Bros.’ “The Dark Knight Rises.”

Those films are primarily aimed at fast-growing international markets like China and Brazil, where studios are enjoying double-digit box-office growth as more foreign movie fans come to theaters on opening weekend and beyond.

Underscoring this last point, check out this THR article which breaks down international B.O. in 2011 which totaled $13.6B, including a studio [Paramount] breaking the $3B mark for the first time. Compared to the projected $10.2B in domestic B.O., that’s a big difference in terms of revenues.

For more of the LAT article, go here.

For more of Roger Ebert, go here.