Oscars: Do we already know the winning screenplays?

Yes, we do per Sijmen’s Oscar Experiment:

In 2000, I found myself a secret weapon to predict the Oscar nominees: a mathematical and statistical Formula, based on the relation between the Pre-Oscar Awards and the Oscar nominees.

And the best thing about is… It works!

And the winners are…

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (12.44) — LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (7.17)
3. A Serious Man (6.97)
4. 500 Days of Summer (5.77)
5. Up (5.61)

6. Sin Nombre (2.41)
7. It’s Complicated (2.35)
8. The White Ribbon (1.50)
9. Broken Embraces (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. The Maid (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (20.83) — LOCK! -
2. In the Loop (6.22)
3. District 9 (4.92)
4. An Education (3.51)
5. Fantastic Mr. Fox (3.25)
-. Precious (3.25)

7. Where the Wild Things Are (1.70)
8. Julie & Julia (1.35)
9. The Informant! (1.00)

I think that’s right: The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air. 

BTW, here is Sijmen’s formula.

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