Six Reasons Why Hollywood Box Office is Dipping
Our final article on the state of the Hollywood movie business comes courtesy of Anne Thompson at IndieWire who posted this article yesterday:
After the MPAA released its latest figures Wednesday, in a conference call acting chief Bob Pisano and National Association of Theater Owners chief John Fithian tried to make the best of a bad situation. As usual, the MPAA blamed piracy on declining admissions (down 5% to 1.3 billion in 2010), while both hailed the premium digital 3-D revenues and the continues expansion of 3-D screens and production. Sure, with 25 films released in 3-D in 2010, up from 20 in 2009, 3-D has temporarily staved off disaster at the box office. But despite Fithian’s insistence that revenues are what count, a downward slide on admissions is not a good thing.
I highly doubt, for example, that the “cyclical” nature of box office accounting will prove to even things out in the long run, as Fithian hopes. This time, declining admissions really do portend real changes in moviegoer behavior. And the studios’ tentpole-franchise-brand-chasing flight from hungry adult audiences who flock to see word-of-mouth hits such as The King’s Speech, The Fighter, Black Swan, True Grit, The Kids Are All Right, Inception and The Social Network — Oscar contenders all — is wrong-headed. Because guess which demo is fickle, falling for competitive online alternatives such as Netflix streaming and video games? Young males, the very demo GQ’s Mark Harris defines as the studios’ sweet spot in “The Day the Movies Died.” According to the MPAA, while young people 12 to 24 still represent nearly one-quarter of moviegoers (nearly one-third of tickets sold), in 2010 fewer tickets were sold to 18 to 24 year olds, while the next age group, 25 to 39, increased its attendance, up to 25% of tickets sold.
And so we circle back to where we started our discussion of the current state of the movie business: The Day the Movies Died by Mark Harris.
FYI here are the six reasons from Thompson’s article:
1. It’s the weather, stupid
2. Winter is a time for cheap B-fare, not high-quality films
3. Avatar
4. Tron: Legacy
5. Exhibitors have overpriced 3-D tickets
6. Free online streaming and rental DVDs
We’ve already discussed the impact of Avatar in terms of any year-to-year comparison. Which of the other reasons do you think might be a main reason for the current dip? Or do you have another theory?
So what does it all mean? Business is up! Business is down! Only spectacle movies work! The return of adult dramas!
Once again William Goldman is right about Hollywood: “Nobody knows anything.”
For more of the IndieWire article, including in-depth analysis per the six reasons, go here.