Spec Script Frenzy? 6 specs set up in 1 week!
By my count, there were 6 spec script deals last week in Hollywood. They are:
March 7: The Nameless
March 8: The Last Witness
March 9: Scavengers
March 10: Monsters of the Midway
March 11: Agent OX
March 11: The Last Drop
That is 8 spec script deals in March alone, 17 for the year thus far. By way of comparison:
2008: The 17th spec script sold on April 4th.
2009: The 17th spec script sold on March 19th.
2010: The 17th spec script sold on April 21st.
So on all fronts, the pace of spec script acquisitions this year is ahead of the past three years. But let’s not get carried away. Here are all the months since 2008 in which studios and production companies picked up 8 spec scripts — the current total this March:
24: April 2008
12: May 2008
10: June 2008, March 2008, March 2009
8: October 2008, February 2009, April 2009, April 2010
Those high numbers in March-June 2008 are heavily influenced by the end of the WGA strike that lasted from November 5, 2007-February 12, 2008 when a flood of material hit the market after the resolution of the work stoppage.
Two things jump out at me from these numbers:
* March is a good month for spec script sales. Even in 2010, a slow year (55 total spec sales), there were 6 deals in March.
* If we take out those post-strike months as aberrations, there are only 5 months (October 2008, February 2009, March 2009, April 2009, April 2010) with 8 spec script deals. That’s 5 months out of over 30. Indeed there have been several months where as few as 2 spec scripts got set up.
What does this mean in terms of the ‘frenzy’ last week? We still have 17 more days in March, so it will be interesting to see where we end up. If it tops 10 deals, March 2011 would be the biggest spec month in the last 4 years excepting that post-strike period. Perhaps then we could begin to say with any confidence that the spec market is on the rebound.
What is definitely encouraging is the fact that some of the major studios who basically sat out the spec market in 2010 are active this year:
* Sony Pictures Entertainment has acquired 9 projects this year, 3 of them spec scripts. In 2010, Sony picked up 1 spec script.
* Twentieth Century Fox has acquired 9 projects this year, 2 of them spec scripts. In 2010, Fox picked up 1 spec script.
A few months back, I predicted a reversal of the downward trend in spec script deals this year and I see nothing in these numbers to suggest otherwise, but is it a ‘frenzy?’ Too early to tell.
Now the fun part: Why are we seeing this type of sales activity in the spec script market? What are your thoughts? I’m especially interested to hear from any of you who work in the script acquisition and development process — what’s your insider’s take on the recent burst of activity?