“The Tao of Tinseltown”

Michael Flemming and Peter Bart post this state-of-the-union overview of where the Hwood movie business is just now:

This is a moment of both angst and opportunity for Hollywood filmmakers.

Major cracks have opened up in the studio infrastructure. There have been regime shifts at three studios, bankruptcy looms over another, costs are being cut mercilessly and both production and development money is hard to come by.

Another cloud hanging over the biz is the uncertainty about the long-term viability of the traditional business model that sends pics through a pipeline that starts with the box office and wends through various video-on-demand, pay TV, DVD and other TV licensing windows.

At the same time, the overall pace of production is finally picking up among studios and indies, after setbacks from the WGA strike and the economic crisis. While there’s agreement that the old system doesn’t work, the filmmaking fraternity is doggedly finding ways around the system — indeed, creating a new system.

The show must go on, after all.

First the good news: Hey, the studios are still making movies!

While the majors are cutting development spending and, in two or three cases, putting many projects into turnaround, most are diligently filling their production quotas for 2010 and 2011. Publicly, studio chiefs consistently put out the word that there were too many releases in 2009 and predict fewer production starts next year, but nonetheless there is robust activity around town.

At Warner Bros., for example, six films are either in production or are about to start shooting. The pics represent a mixed menu, ranging from Clint Eastwood’s “Hereafter” and Christopher Nolan’s “Inception” to Todd Phillips’ “Due Date” and Ben Affleck-helmed “The Town.”

The slate includes such tentpoles as New Line’s “The Hobbit” (in partnership with MGM) and “Green Lantern,” as well as films from helmers as diverse as George Miller (“Fury Road”), Ken Kwapis (“Everybody Loves Whales”) and Zack Snyder (“Sucker Punch”).

Fox, Paramount and Sony all have at least six films skedded to start through summer, as does MGM, which plans to rouse itself after a sleepy 2009. The newly reinvented DreamWorks has nearly that many. Even Disney and Universal, which are in a period of transition due to the exec changes (see story, page 6) have healthy-looking slates.

Now the bad news: Talent, including writers, are making a lot less money!

Talent agents feel lucky to book an actor client into a picture, even at a discounted salary, while a cash break backend as first-dollar gross becomes more elusive than ever.

Agents repping scribes say the WGA strike obliterated established quotes for all but the top-tier screenwriters. They are agreeing to take-it-or-leave deals from studios that call for lower pay, one-step deals and tighter deadlines for writers to deliver under.”There is a perfect storm going on here,” says one veteran talent agent.

“Studios have devalued the star system, as the DVD business goes by the wayside. Right now, it feels like there is just no oxygen, and we are all like fish, gasping to stay alive.”

“Gasping to stay alive.” 

Oy.

But then, there’s always a ray of light poking through the black clouds:

Observers say some of the most encouraging signs are coming from outside the studios.

Todd Wagner, who with Mark Cuban co-owns 2929 Prods., just made a first-look deal with Bedford Falls partners Ed Zwick and Marshall Herskovitz, who were without one since Warner Bros. cut them loose two years ago.

“At face value, the studios are closing down first-look deals and making fewer movies, and they are not buying material,” Wagner says. “That’s exactly the time for someone like us to come in and position ourselves to acquire quality projects and be patient during a very difficult transition time.”

Yes! Smart people with good story sensibilities and money, and in the case of 2929, their own distribution network — Magnolia Pictures, Landmark Theaters, HDNet Movies (cable net) — will be there to buy great stories.

Sideways. Little Miss Sunshine. Juno. There are reasons those movies were successful. And they would still be successful if they were released in 2010. 

There is room for great stories. There is always room for great stories. 

We can’t control the vagaries of the marketplace. But as writers, we can control something: Our stories. 

As always, it boils down to the same thing: Write a great script.

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