The Rise and Fall of the Rom-Com
Did the success of “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” indirectly lead to the decline of Hollywood studios’ interest in romantic comedies?
Terry Huang, Director of Product and Data at the Black List, posted some research and analysis of the state of romantic comedies in Hollywood. In a word, they are languishing.
For decades the RomCom was a staple at the box office, but in recent years (coming in on a decade now), we’ve seen a decline in its presence. What’s the deal? Even [Richard] Curtis, who can do no wrong, hasn’t been immune to the trend (notice the declining box office and multiples on budget):
Box Office Mojo tracks genres of films over the years along with box office numbers. Using these figures, we can get a sense of the relative presence of RomComs (as classified by Box Office Mojo) at the box office over the past few decades.
Let’s start by taking a look at the RomCom’s share of domestic box office dollars:
The RomCom generally hovered between 4–10% of total box office dollars before 2012, when that year there was a major and lasting dip. The median up until then was about 6% of the market.
But after 2012 we start to see a huge decline in its overall market share, reaching a low of 0.7% in 2016.
Okay, that’s for box office results. What about the number of rom coms produced by Hollywood studios?
If we look at the number of RomComs versus total number of films released, we gain a slightly different insight.
Overall, yes, we continue to see a declining trend in the number of RomComs released; but noticeably, we see a large spike the in market share in 2004, before it declines significantly and eventually falls to its lowest levels.
So what might we gather from these charts? Well, let’s look at the marketplace in those two years (highest percent of films in 2004 and significant decline in revenue share in 2012) to get a sense of what films were being released.
2002 seems to be one inflection point for RomComs, and one film in particular sticks out for its outsized presence:
MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING.
The movie was a huge win at the box office, bigger than anyone would have imagined — it became one of the most financially successful films of all time, irrespective of genre, especially when you look at its gross of $236 million versus its meager $5 million budget. The film alone represented 2.58% of total box office revenue that year.
Is it perhaps meaningful that two years after a single RomCom gained so much market share at the box office we see the highest representation of RomComs of films released?
The studios released the most number of RomComs in 2004, but coinciding that was a dip in the total share of box office revenue. The studio system perhaps chased the success of MBFGW but failed to replicate it.
I think Terry’s onto something. My Big Fat Wedding was SUCH a huge hit with an astonishing ROI it appears Hollywood studios chased after similar rom-com success.
The years following MBFGW saw some high-profile flops, some of those notable losers costing the studio system nearly half a billion dollars.
Even though there was a slight recovery after a precipitous decline starting after 2004, the studios have increasingly pulled back on releasing RomComs.
And not only were they releasing fewer RomComs; they were also slashing budgets.
I’m sure the explanation — if there is any — for the decline in popularity of rom-coms is more complex than simply Hollywood getting sucked down the rabbit hole pursuing mega-profits a la MBFGW. However, it does seem to be a turning point in this sub-genre’s current state.
Note: Everything in Hollywood is cyclical. Five years from now, we may very well be talking about the rise of rom-coms. To prepare for that possibility, check out the podcast You Had Us At Hello hosted by screenwriter Tess Morris and story consultant Billy Mernit.
To read the rest of Terry Huang’s Black List article, go here.
